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Post by mirrororchid on Mar 23, 2022 5:34:48 GMT -5
September 30th last year, there was a brief exchange between Handy and me. I'd post this there, but it was off the off-topic topic of that thread. Necroposting something so irrelevant would be distracting and unsettling. So...new thread. And not one unworthy of calling into existence. Play the markets. Proud of a pick? Hopeful of an up and comer? Want to share a mistake? This is de place. Handy chose AGM on 9/30/21AGM at the time: $113 Dividends paid since then? $1.83 Current price: $120 Approximate profit: $9 or 8% mirrororchid fielded NRIM:
NRIM at the time: $44 Dividends paid since then? $0.79 Current price: $46 Approximate profit: $3 or 7% Handy has the lead. Even though NRIM is up a bit shy of 5%, earnings went up too so I still expect 20% return. I'll stay with NRIM. Handy can switch if he doesn't like AGM any more.
iliasm.org/post/140109/thread - Page 35 Handy Senior Member **** Handy Avatar Posts: 3,093 Sep 30, 2021 at 7:32pm QuotelikePost OptionsPost by Handy on Sep 30, 2021 at 7:32pm TSCO Specialty Retail Dividend 2.08 OK Dividend % 1.03% just fair Forward P/E 24.84 a little high PEG 2.93 high, I like under 1 EPS (ttm) 7.51 EPS next Y 8.16 good EPS next 5Y 9.20% good Price 202.61 ? Target Price 201.92 not good I looked at TSCO for several years but never bought any shares. Look at AGM on finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=agm&ty=c&ta=1&p=dmirrororchid Senior Member **** Bought it (TSCO) in Sept 2010 Sold 3/4 of it in April 2011 at about a 35% gain. Over 10 years that 1/4 multiplied 13x. Today, it is aggressively leveraged and the dividend is less than half what I would demand. We agree. It's not a good pick today. AGM's dividend is high enough that I expect little growth from it. It is fairly valued. The >20x debt scares me off. They're paying the dividend with borrowed money. That isn't sustainable. I'm happier with Northrim BanCorp, Inc. (NRIM) Flush with cash, good earnings supporting a healthy dividend. I'm banking on at least a 20% upside on top of the dividends. How long will I wait for that? Given the 8% average return of the market, I can wait a darn long time as I soak up the nickels and dimes it casts off once in a while. |
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Post by ironhamster on Mar 24, 2022 20:13:47 GMT -5
The market is a strange place when black swans are in play. As much of a run up as we have had, my bet is $NVDA, even at 281/share.
Ideally, I would recommend at least five stocks in different industries, but for one stock, I will bet on one that owns part of the future.
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Post by mirrororchid on Mar 25, 2022 4:58:27 GMT -5
The market is a strange place when black swans are in play. As much of a run up as we have had, my bet is $NVDA, even at 281/share. Ideally, I would recommend at least five stocks in different industries, but for one stock, I will bet on one that owns part of the future. Surely, diversity is key to successful investment. Events can make any one stock get pummeled. $NVDA's fate rests a lot on Cryptocurrencies that use proof of work. Could the exhaustion of limited Bitcoin reduce the need for GPUs? (given the exponential nature of remaining Bitcoin, I could see it doing the opposite for you, but when? The last Bitcoin is estimated to be mined in 2140.) Could migration to proof-of-stake reduce demand? Make it collapse? Will Metaverse applications spur demand for even more robust graphic rendering? Hm. You're talking me into buying a little bit for real. I'm not a big fan of buying on news, I prefer rumor. But that can mean never buying. |
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Post by ironhamster on Mar 25, 2022 5:47:24 GMT -5
The market is a strange place when black swans are in play. As much of a run up as we have had, my bet is $NVDA, even at 281/share. Ideally, I would recommend at least five stocks in different industries, but for one stock, I will bet on one that owns part of the future. Surely, diversity is key to successful investment. Events can make any one stock get pummeled. $NVDA's fate rests a lot on Cryptocurrencies that use proof of work. Could the exhaustion of limited Bitcoin reduce the need for GPUs? (given the exponential nature of remaining Bitcoin, I could see it doing the opposite for you, but when? The last Bitcoin is estimated to be mined in 2140.) Could migration to proof-of-stake reduce demand? Make it collapse? Will Metaverse applications spur demand for even more robust graphic rendering? Hm. You're talking me into buying a little bit for real. I'm not a big fan of buying on news, I prefer rumor. But that can mean never buying. We're not done number crunching. What is the market for self driving vehicles, for instance? Robotics with vision? Many decades ago, the President of IBM declared that the world market for computers was two. Today, my light bulbs have more computing power than the UNIVAC. I might not know our destination, but I can see what direction the wind is blowing us. |
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Post by ironhamster on Apr 27, 2022 20:20:18 GMT -5
I'm going back to cash to reconsider. When things started going south last November, I knew the tech giants had installed Biden, and believed that, ignoring politics, things would go well financially. After all, he is the billionaire supported President. But, for whatever reason, the bad decisions keep coming. Inflation in large part is due to global tensions that would not be there with better leadership plus our sudden and unnecessary dependence on foreign oil. Obama was once quoted, saying, "never underestimate Joe's ability to fuck shit up." High interest rates are going to crush companies that cannot service their debt with their profit margins. So, I'm taking a cash breather. My likely next speculative move will be, if we have another run of optimism, $QID, $SQQQ, or $SOXS, all inverse leveraged ETFs. IMHO, we have not seen the end of bad decisions, and, therefore, the bear market hasn't hit bottom.
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Post by mirrororchid on Apr 28, 2022 5:05:06 GMT -5
I'm going back to cash to reconsider. When things started going south last November, I knew the tech giants had installed Biden, and believed that, ignoring politics, things would go well financially. After all, he is the billionaire supported President. But, for whatever reason, the bad decisions keep coming. Inflation in large part is due to global tensions that would not be there with better leadership plus our sudden and unnecessary dependence on foreign oil. Obama was once quoted, saying, "never underestimate Joe's ability to fuck shit up." High interest rates are going to crush companies that cannot service their debt with their profit margins. So, I'm taking a cash breather. My likely next speculative move will be, if we have another run of optimism, $QID, $SQQQ, or $SOXS, all inverse leveraged ETFs. IMHO, we have not seen the end of bad decisions, and, therefore, the bear market hasn't hit bottom. That made no sense to me. If inflation is eating teh value of cash, why would you be in cash? I'd think defensive stocks (things people are forced to buy at any cost (food, TP. utilities) with cash reserves sufficient to cover debt if interest spikes would be my choice. www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-wells-fargo-heres-the-best-asset-to-own-during-inflation/I'm not sure oil is that good a play, but the big money is in wrinkled codger hands and they don't think oil is on teh decline. (God hope they're wrong!) It very well may have one good run left in it. Mining has been sideways for me, despite the mineral demands the future seems to demand. I have minor stakes in oil and mining. I have a truckload (proportionately) of banks and insurance companies. That always seems to be the case. When interest rates rise, their current investments lose value, but their profits rise with inflation so losses are limited. The article sees growth stocks outperforming value stocks. Interesting. During inflation, do indebted companies jack prices up and pay off their debt with increasingly diminished dollars, strengthening their balance sheets? Perhaps I need to be a little less averse to companies that have sizable debt as long as they have cash to weather the storm. I personally worry less about inflation than austerity. The Obama economy was sluggish but had very low inflation. No one gave those years high marks. It was visited by low government spending after 2010. Six straight years of restraint, and six straight years of plodding. Somewhere between austerity and the "free college and daycare for everybody" Biden proposals is a happy medium that allows capital to flow to good ideas, but doesn't provide enough cash to everyone to have everything they want, with not enough to go around. Small cap value stocks ,might land me somewhere in double digit returns and soothe my risk averse proclivities. The Cyclicals had me curious. What's in that Invesco fund that might do well? COMPANY SYMBOL TOTAL NET ASSETS O'Reilly Automotive Inc. ORLY 6.02% SeaWorld Entertainment Inc. SEAS 4.47% Costco Wholesale Corp. COST 4.28% Tractor Supply Co. TSCO 4.27% Nike Inc. Cl B NKE 4.17% BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings Inc. BJ 4.14% Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Co ORD HMHC 4.10% Bath & Body Works Inc. BBWI 4.01% Boot Barn Holdings Inc. BOOT 4.00% Ford Motor Co. F 3.90% Two shoe companies, cars, wholesale clubs. Some higher end soaps. Sea World is an outlier, but the mix otherwise seems pretty defensive to me. Boot Barn has twice as much debt as cash, no dividend. Could be curious to see how that does. It wouldn't be my pick. |
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Post by ironhamster on Apr 28, 2022 6:34:13 GMT -5
I don't think we are done seeing damage from higher interest rates. There are tech companies that will not be able to service their debts under higher interest rates, so I see reason to be pessimistic on those stocks. I would never short an individual stock, but inverse ETFs offer diversified puts all in one convenient basket.
I sold out of oil before the big move. Very often, my crystal ball has a crack or a cloudy spot. $COST has been a remarkably steady performer. I've sold my $AMZN to balance losses from my chip investments. It's a shock to take a loss so quickly when only a few short months ago I didn't want to sell because I didn't want to pay taxes. $AMZN may hurt over increased fuel costs, but it is a good conglomerate that still has room to run. $APPL should do fine, also. They have a loyal base of customers that might delay a purchase in hard times but won't accept any substitute.
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Post by mirrororchid on Apr 29, 2022 6:13:32 GMT -5
I don't think we are done seeing damage from higher interest rates. There are tech companies that will not be able to service their debts under higher interest rates, so I see reason to be pessimistic on those stocks. I would never short an individual stock, but inverse ETFs offer diversified puts all in one convenient basket. I sold out of oil before the big move. Very often, my crystal ball has a crack or a cloudy spot. $COST has been a remarkably steady performer. I've sold my $AMZN to balance losses from my chip investments. It's a shock to take a loss so quickly when only a few short months ago I didn't want to sell because I didn't want to pay taxes. $AMZN may hurt over increased fuel costs, but it is a good conglomerate that still has room to run. $APPL should do fine, also. They have a loyal base of customers that might delay a purchase in hard times but won't accept any substitute. I've jealously eyed shorting ETFs but never bitten. What are teh fees or costs of those things? Had a gold fund I dumped because it was chewing too much from prospective gains. Crap investments, those are. All my stock is in IRAs, so gains and losses are immaterial for now. It also explains my lust for well-financed dividends. My concern over stocks like AMZN, COST, and APPL is their ubiquity. If they are a good value, everyone knows it and there's no outsized gains to be had. Their size precludes spikes in prices, too often. Amazon web services had me buy just a little bit though because their market share is strong and their chief rivals seem to struggle to unseat their commanding lead. The entire pie is growing too. I do have Apple from a decade ago. Cashed out my principle and let the profit slice run since then, clocking in at 17x what I kept. Pretty good, but not a superhero stock for me. I like smaller cap dividend stocks with more cash than debt. Simple plan. Looking at the portfolio though, I have to wonder. My top earners are almost all big names. I'd have to check if I'm comparing apples to apples though. My initial principle may have been parger on the large caps. I was less worried about losing a lot. |
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Post by ironhamster on Apr 29, 2022 22:57:27 GMT -5
One of the nice things about most ETFs is that they are computer controlled and well defined, and as such they tend to have very low expense ratios. I can split my money between $SPY and $QQQ, have instant diversification, and ignore them from there on out. Expense ratios for these are about 0.1%. For an inverse 2X QQQ fund, the $QID is only about 1%.
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Post by mirrororchid on May 2, 2022 4:34:48 GMT -5
One of the nice things about most ETFs is that they are computer controlled and well defined, and as such they tend to have very low expense ratios. I can split my money between $SPY and $QQQ, have instant diversification, and ignore them from there on out. Expense ratios for these are about 0.1%. For an inverse 2X QQQ fund, the $QID is only about 1%. The 1% is kind of rough. If you want bear insurance bad enough, I suppose. www.clever-trading-strategies.com/Inverse-ETFs-and-ProShares-Lists.html "Inverse ETFs are active investment and the value of it goes up when the price of the underlying securities goes down. This means you can profit from falling prices. However, Inverse ETFs are not suitable as long term investment. You cannot buy it and forget about it. The time horizon for holding Inverse ETFs should be limited to three to five days during a market selloff." I can almost see that. I worry I'd be the guy who buys his bear insurance just as the market capitulation has run it's course. I go up 5% before the whales sell off their shares and I drop like a stone losing my 5 and then some. It's market timing on an action movie scale. Cut the red wire, dude. No blue! I expect these ETFs can lose share value but at least you don't have to worry about margin calls. That scenario has kept me far far away from shorts. ETFs may be a tempting vehicle for my resolve to weaken. Still, I swear by teh adage "Buy on rumor, sell on news" and I have zero confidence that I hear rumors quick enough to be useful. My general strategy is value oriented with the expectation that the whales will eventually notice my undervalued stock, see the upside in it and park some money there. Perhaps a lot in order to generate their own momentum, start the rumors, sell on the news of all the retail investors trying to catch the wave they started. Whales are dicks, but if they worried about the little people...they wouldn't be whales, right? |
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Post by ironhamster on May 3, 2022 9:20:57 GMT -5
I agree that timing the market is a fool's errand, and and I do my best to think through things, but, as Alan Greenspan pointed out, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. I've been there, painfully, on almost every pullback.
I think this will be a stagflation Volcker style year or two. In 2008, and 2020 we knew what the issues were and that help, perhaps too much help, was on the way. This time it's different.
I can't help but believe there are people that either know what the Fed will do and trade on it, and/or people that trade then influence the Fed. Some argue it's illegal, but given the Timothy Geithner issue we know the law is only a suggestion for the financial elite.
So my bet is we have a relief rally between now and June when the Fed opens its mouth again. My crystal ball gets hazy there, but the long term trend is clearly down, and will be even more clearly down if oil hits $140/barrel. It might be a good strategy to hide out in consumer staples, as they can pass on inflationary costs, while waiting for growth stocks to bottom.
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Post by ironhamster on Jun 2, 2022 20:33:28 GMT -5
Here's a few picks. Jamie Diamond's talk with Jay Powell was likely very constructive. He described an upcoming financial hurricane, which hopefully his advice will head off.
$NVDA is back on. This is a long term hold, like $AAPL or $MSFT.
$OTLY. It's severely beaten down from this latest rout in the market, but I think in a couple years could easily get back above 20.
$ARKK. Cathy Woods famous innovation ETF. Many of her picks have been beaten down badly. I believe this is a gift horse buying opportunity for a great basket of forward thinking companies.
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Post by ironhamster on Jun 2, 2022 20:54:43 GMT -5
Here is another speculative play, based on my belief that $140/bbl oil will hamstring our economy, just like it did in 2008. Oil at that level isn't stable. If oil hits $140, I will be putting money in $DRIP. This is a leveraged inverse ETF. As the price of oil drops, it rises, but twice as fast. This could move from $10 to $60 per share in six months or less.
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Post by mirrororchid on Jun 3, 2022 6:12:42 GMT -5
Here is another speculative play, based on my belief that $140/bbl oil will hamstring our economy, just like it did in 2008. Oil at that level isn't stable. If oil hits $140, I will be putting money in $DRIP. This is a leveraged inverse ETF. As the price of oil drops, it rises, but twice as fast. This could move from $10 to $60 per share in six months or less. Playing on margin is terrifying. An ETF that does it for you sounds like a good way to avoid the worst risk. Problem is, what's teh catch? Some stocks like this disclose they have dilution or fee deduction included in teh stock price. You get charged fees for their taking the risk. Do you know what fees/costs may be in play for $DROP and ARKK? Because I love the concept. I've wanted an ETF that buys shares of Berkshire Hathaway and its shares represent partial, affordable shares of its sole holding. Again, though, what would be the catch? I figure such a simple vehicle could charge nominal fees comparable to an index fund since there's really not much decision making going on. The fund would still make some good money charging very low fees. At first, such a fund could end up being highly illiquid. And speaking of liquid, OTLY. Very interesting selection. I'm a believer in the mylk movement, but wow, their cash flow compared with their cash is...unsettling. What am I missing? It has no dividend so it wouldn't normally be a pick of mine, but then again, neither was Tesla. As a premium brand, the threat to its profitability comes of the questionable breadth and depth of their moat. The ability to produce oat milk is not a huge hurdle. Being teh best is good, but how much better must they be to justify a substantial premium price and profit margin? I've been investing in BYND (already cleared 30%, then sold my principle, keeping the chunk of profit to ride until I'm 59 1/2) I'd buy Impossible Foods, if it were public. These two have invested complex food science into their products. Nothing easily reproducible by anyone with a kitchen. Economies of scale may allow for vegan meats like this to cost less than beef pretty soon at which point some people may start eating it on teh regular as both a cost saver and an environmentally friendly choice. The animal rights angle may weigh in a bit for persuadable carnivores. Back in the aughts, I bought five different Linux companies, convincing myself one would become valuable. One of them had been Red Hat Linux. It was bought out by IBM, at which point I sold. Another became Caldera, which then went private and dumped money in my account. Don't know who will win? Bet on them all. It's a bit like betting on all the horses in a race, but as the race proceeds, the odds/payoff on the horse in the lead get better - but only for your ticket. If you try to bet when it's obvious which horse is going to win, they sell you a new ticket at much lower odds. |
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Post by ironhamster on Jun 3, 2022 14:31:58 GMT -5
I remember some speculative stock advice, and that was to pick ten companies. Expect three to tread water, six to fail, and one to take off enough to cover all the losses and make the exercise profitable. If you pick well and get two winners, even better.
I think $OTLY falls into this category. Customers will pay for quality. $AAPL has an infrastructure that makes customers repeat customers.
$TSLA, the same. Other car companies don't understand this, but Tesla cars charge faster and have far more charging stations than all the competition combined. My Model 3 experience has been excellent, and it's their low end vehicle. I stop to charge on trips, and chargers always seem to have a free stall, so in half an hour I've had my bathroom break, picked up a drink, stretched, and I am on my way. Most competitors might have two chargers, and often one is not working, so don't plan on being at your destination on time if you drive any other EV.
I missed $BYND. It was a surprise to me, as the cost of their product, I thought, wasn't competitive. But, like other companies, people will pay that premium for quality.
I'm willing to pay the convenience fees for $ARKK. The fund is battered. I believe the sellers are exhausted, and this is a generational buying opportunity.
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